[meteorite-list] EUVE satellite reentry

From: Matson, Robert <ROBERT.D.MATSON_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Apr 22 09:55:55 2004
Message-ID: <AF564D2B9D91D411B9FE00508BF1C8698E5951_at_US-Torrance.mail.saic.com>

Hi All,

I've done a quick and dirty analysis of the upcoming EUVE decay to
assess probabilities for the reentry impacting particular locations.
For the sake of this analysis, I've assumed a reentry date/time of
1/31 06:00 UTC +/- 12 hours. Here are the probabilities I came
up with for a number of locations (some general, some specific):

Africa: 11.5%
Australia: 3.8%
Brazil: 3.4%
Saudi Arabia: 1.9%
India: 1.8%
Mexico: 1.1%
Peru: 0.9%
Argentina: 0.8%
Chile: 0.6%
Texas: 0.5%
Venezuela: 0.5%
Nicaragua: 0.3%
Cuba: 0.3%
Bahamas: 0.1%
Hawaii: 0.1%
Belize: 0.1%

One large country I forgot to compute was southern China, which
has a probability in the same ballpark as Saudi Arabia. Pakistan,
Iran, southernmost Afghanistan, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam,
Indonesia, and the Philippines all have non-zero probabilities of
impact. However, there is a better than 60% chance that reentry
will occur over the Pacific, Atlantic or Indian Ocean.

Cheers,
Rob
Received on Tue 29 Jan 2002 06:35:43 PM PST