[meteorite-list] OT: Iridium 27 decay warning update

From: Matson, Robert <ROBERT.D.MATSON_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Apr 22 09:55:56 2004
Message-ID: <AF564D2B9D91D411B9FE00508BF1C8698E5978_at_US-Torrance.mail.saic.com>

Hi All,

The decay trend is improving on Iridium 27 for southern California. A few
hours
ago I would have put the odds of it occurring during the L.A. pass at about
1%.
Drag seems to have increased a little more than expected, bringing the
reentry
time earlier. I would now say the chances are pretty good that reentry
will\
occur within +/- 1 rev of the California-Nevada-Oregon-Washington pass, and
I'm inclined to increase our chances of observing it to 5% based on our
favorable
location downrange of a satellite local altitude minima.

Those in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, eastern Nebraska and western Iowa
we'll be encouraged to hear that their chances have improved dramatically
as well -- one rev earlier than the California pass. The northbound track
is just a bit west of Houston around 20:18 CST, and almost directly over
Dallas a minute later. Oklahoma City is also pretty close to the reentry
track, as are Wichita, Kansas and Omaha, Nebraska. The pass goes right
over Sioux City, Iowa at around 20:22 CST. Anyone close to the border
shared by Minnesota and the Dakotas is also right under the satellite
ground track on this pass.

Best,
Rob
Received on Thu 31 Jan 2002 06:46:49 PM PST