[meteorite-list] Asteroids, Panic and Planning

From: Ron Baalke <baalke_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Apr 22 10:18:27 2004
Message-ID: <200302141906.LAA08377_at_zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>

Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey

Contact:
Miguel Tersey, (732) 932-7084, extension 616
E-mail: mtersy_at_ur.rutgers.edu

February 13, 2003

Asteroids, panic and planning

The human dimesions of a near-earth object impact

NEW BRUNSWICK/PISCATAWAY, N.J. -- Lee Clarke, a sociology
professor at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey,
will discuss "Responding to Panic in a Global Impact
Catastrophe" during a symposium at the American
Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual
meeting in Denver. The session, "The Asteroid/Comet Impact
Hazard: A Decade of Growing Awareness," will take place
Thursday (Feb. 14) at 8:30 a.m. in Room A207 of the
Colorado Convention Center.

Clarke is an internationally known expert in disasters
and in organizational and technological failures. He
has written about panic, civil defense, evacuation and
community response to disaster, and is the author of
"Mission Improbable: Using Fantasy Documents to Tame
Disaster," a book about planning for very
low probability-high consequence events.

Despite the mass panic depicted in the movies and on
television, Clarke said this is not what happens in
real disasters. "We have five decades of research on
all kinds of disasters -- earthquakes, tornadoes, airplane
crashes, etc.-- and people rarely lose control," he said.
"Policy-makers have yet to accept this. People are quite
capable of following plans, even in the face of extreme
calamities, but such plans must be there."

For a disaster plan to be successful, Clarke said that
communication must play an integral role. He pointed out
that officials may lose the public's trust and doom the
plan to failure if information is withheld based on the
false assumption that people will become hysterical.

Clarke issued the caveat that for plans to be effective,
a nation must have a sufficiently developed infrastructure
for carrying out a civil defense program during a major
disaster. Clarke noted that no one has actually planned
for the massive disaster that could accompany collision
with a near-earth object (NEO) -- a comet or an asteroid.
"While the idea of this happening is almost unthinkable,
we must realize that no countries have plans in place nor
are there international agreements for coordinated civil
defense responses," he said.

"The United States is the world leader in most things,
and we ought to be out in front in talking about the
danger and in expending resources on deflection and
mitigation," he continued. Though science policy
advisers from the 30 member nations of the Organisation
for Economic Cooperation and Development are considering
NEO contingency proposals, Third World countries are not
represented. Clarke stressed that the problem needs to
be highlighted in the United Nations, where the voices
and interests of poorer countries can be heard.

Clarke posed the example of an NEO striking the ocean, a
likely scenario since 70 percent of the earth's surface
is ocean. "An asteroid hitting the water could create
an immense wave hitting the coasts," Clarke said. "An
appropriate civil defense plan could focus on moving the
population inland prior to impact." He said that even
now we should be talking publicly about population
relocation, potentially on a massive scale, and developing
incentives for geographical redevelopment to slow the rate
of people moving into vulnerable places.

"Earth's history is filled with unanticipated catastrophes
and their disastrous consequences. With appropriate
planning, the human toll could be lessened," said Clarke.
Received on Fri 14 Feb 2003 02:06:53 PM PST