[meteorite-list] 2004 MN4 updated odds

From: Jeff Kuyken <jeff_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Mon Dec 27 04:34:34 2004
Message-ID: <00e401c4ebf7$49ff63e0$82348690_at_mandin4f89ypwu>

Mmmmmm! Nearly the same odds as landing on 17 black! ;-)

Cheers,

Jeff Kuyken
I.M.C.A. #3085
www.meteorites.com.au


----- Original Message -----
From: Matson, Robert
To: 'stan . ' ; 'meteorite-list-bounces_at_meteoritecentral.com ' ;
'Meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com '
Sent: Monday, December 27, 2004 7:33 PM
Subject: [meteorite-list] 2004 MN4 updated odds


Hi Stan and List,

Latest updated odds of impact for the 4/13/2029 encounter are
about 1 in 37 at JPL's site. (Odds haven't been updated at
NEODyS yet -- still 1 in 45 there). Mind you, these aren't
the true odds of impact, but rather a measure of our current
uncertainty in the orbit. With each passing day, the orbital
arc is extended by about 1/2 of one percent, so the cloud of
possible solutions 24.3 years from now is slowly shrinking.

--Rob
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Received on Mon 27 Dec 2004 04:34:36 AM PST