[meteorite-list] An Asteroid Headed Our Way (2004 MN4-99942Apophis)

From: Tom Knudson <peregrineflier_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Mon Jul 25 23:04:27 2005
Message-ID: <00b701c5918e$c01e1e30$2d107918_at_Michelle>

Hi Jerry,
"The mind's and it's technology would be a waste of
millions if not billions of years of evolution."
  I guess we should stop the asteroid, besides, what would N. Korea do with
their nuclear weapons if an asteroid destroyed the earth first.
  Life as we know it is going to end one way or the other someday, and I
would rather it be an asteroid than "The mind's and it's technology "
Thanks, Tom
peregrineflier <><

----- Original Message -----
From: "Dawn & Gerald Flaherty" <grf2_at_verizon.net>
To: "Tom Knudson" <peregrineflier_at_npgcable.com>; "Meteorite Mailing List"
<meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Sent: Monday, July 25, 2005 7:20 PM
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] An Asteroid Headed Our Way (2004
MN4-99942Apophis)


> Hey Tom, we're part and parcel of what "Mother Nature's" conjured up, so
why
> not do her bidding. The mind's and it's technology would be a waste of
> millions if not billions of years of evolution. Jerry
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Tom Knudson" <peregrineflier_at_npgcable.com>
> To: "Meteorite Mailing List" <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
> Sent: Monday, July 25, 2005 7:27 PM
> Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] An Asteroid Headed Our Way (2004
> MN4 -99942Apophis)
>
>
> > Hi List,
> > I have to ask, is it right to mess with "mother nature"? From the
> beginning
> > of time cosmic events have been part of nature. If "mother nature"
> thinks
> > it's time for mankind to end, then do we have the right to stop it?
> > Natural disasters are part of life, we will never stop earthquakes,
> > tornados, tidal waves, hurricanes or volcano's, because we can not,
should
> > we stop asteroids just because we can? I say, let nature take it's
coarse!
> > : ) Heck, if it were not for asteroids, we would be watching out for
> > T-rex's when ever we went out to the store for milk! Mother nature
knows
> > what she's doing, let her do her thing! Any women right activists out
> there
> > to give an opinion on this?
> > Thanks, Tom
> > peregrineflier <><
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ron Baalke" <baalke_at_zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
> > To: "Meteorite Mailing List" <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
> > Sent: Monday, July 25, 2005 4:05 PM
> > Subject: [meteorite-list] An Asteroid Headed Our Way (2004 MN4 -
> > 99942Apophis)
> >
> >
> > >
> > >
> > > http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0726/p01s04-stss.html
> > >
> > > An asteroid, headed our way
> > > By Peter N. Spotts
> > > The Christian Science Monitor
> > > July 26, 2005
> > >
> > > Humans live in a vast solar system where 2,000 feet seems a razor-thin
> > > distance.
> > >
> > > Yet it's just wide enough to trigger concerns that an asteroid due to
> > > buzz Earth on April 13, 2029 may shift its orbit enough to return and
> > > strike the planet seven years later.
> > >
> > > The concern: Within the object's range of possible fly-by distances
lie
> > > a handful of gravitational "sweet spots," areas some 2,000 feet across
> > > that are also known as keyholes.
> > >
> > > The physics may sound complex, but the potential ramifications are
plain
> > > enough. If the asteroid passes through the most probable keyhole, its
> > > new orbit would send it slamming into Earth in 2036. It's unclear to
> > > some experts whether ground-based observatories alone will be able to
> > > provide enough accurate information in time to mount a mission to
divert
> > > the asteroid, if that becomes necessary.
> > >
> > > So NASA researchers have begun considering whether the US needs to tag
> > > the asteroid, known as 99942 Apophis, with a radio beacon before 2013.
> > >
> > > Timing is everything, astronomers say. If officials attempt to divert
> > > the asteroid before 2029, they need to nudge the space rock's position
> > > by roughly half a mile - something well within the range of existing
> > > technology. After 2029, they would need to shove the asteroid by a
> > > distance as least as large as Earth's diameter. That feat would tax
> > > humanity's current capabilities.
> > >
> > > NASA's review of the issue was triggered by a letter from the B612
> > > Foundation. The foundation's handful of specialists hope to
demonstrate
> > > controlled asteroid-diversion techniques by 2015.
> > >
> > > Last Wednesday, representatives from the foundation met with
colleagues
> > > at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to review the issue. The
> > > foundation's letter marks the first time specialists in the
> > > asteroid-hazard field have called for a scouting mission to assess
such
> > > a threat.
> > >
> > > "We understand the risk from this object, and while it's small, it's
not
> > > zero," says David Morrison, the senior scientist at NASA's
Astrobiology
> > > Institute at the Ames Research Center at Moffett Field, Calif.
> > >
> > > The call for a reconnaissance mission also illustrates how far the
field
> > > of asteroid-hazard assessment has come.
> > >
> > > "Ten years ago, we would have been blissfully ignorant," says Donald
> > > Yeomans, who heads NASA's near-Earth object project at JPL. Today, at
> > > least five programs worldwide are hunting down near-Earth objects.
NASA
> > > is well on its way toward achieving its goal of cataloging 90 percent
of
> > > the near-Earth objects larger than 0.6 miles across by 2008. And it is
> > > devising ways to ensure that information about potential hazards
reaches
> > > top decisionmakers throughout the government.
> > >
> > > Based on available data, astronomers give Apophis - a 1,000-foot wide
> > > chunk of space debris - a 1-in-15,000 chance of a 2036 strike. Yet if
> > > the asteroid hits, they add, damage to infrastructure alone could
exceed
> > > $400 billion. When the possibility of the asteroid passing through two
> > > other keyholes is taken into account, the combined chance of the
> > > asteroid hitting the planet shifts to 1 in 10,000, notes Clark
Chapman,
> > > a senior scientist with the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder,
> Colo.
> > >
> > > "A frequent flier probably would not want to board an airliner if
> > > there's a 1-in-10,000 chance it's going to crash," he says.
> > >
> > > The asteroid in question was discovered last June. Initially, it
looked
> > > as though it might strike Earth in 2029. But additional observations
> > > eliminated that possibility. Instead the asteroid will come within
> > > 22,600 miles of Earth - just inside the altitude where major
> > > communications satellites orbit. The asteroid will be visible to the
> > > naked eye in the night skies over Europe and western Africa, where it
> > > will appear a bit dimmer than the North Star.
> > >
> > > But this estimated distance carries an uncertainty that spans several
> > > thousand miles either side of its expected path - a region of space
that
> > > includes three gravitational keyholes.
> > >
> > > JPL's analysis will look at several factors. One involves estimating
> > > whether additional ground observations will be sufficient to resolve
the
> > > question of whether the asteroid will pass through one of the
keyholes.
> > > The asteroid belongs to a class known as Atens, which orbit the sun in
> > > less than a year and pass through Earth's orbit. Because Atens spend
so
> > > much of their time in the direction of the Sun, observations from
Earth
> > > are difficult. After next year, the next opportunity to gather data on
> > > the asteroid from the ground will come in 2012-2013.
> > >
> > > In addition, questions remain over how long a tagging mission - and if
> > > necessary a deflection mission - would take to plan and execute. If
> > > missions can be mounted in six years or less, NASA could postpone a
> > > decision to tag the asteroid until 2014. This would give astronomers
> > > time to incorporate their latest observations as they refine
> > > calculations of Apophis's orbit. But if a tagging mission took seven
to
> > > eight years and a diversion mission took another 12 years, the case
> > > grows for launching the tagging mission sooner rather than later.
> > >
> > > Dr. Yeomans, the head of the near-Earth-object program at JPL, says
the
> > > next step is to examine whether additional ground-based observations
are
> > > likely to solve the collision riddle in a timely fashion.
> > >
> > > "I can't stress this enough: The overwhelming most-likely scenario is
> > > that radar and optical data this year and next or in 2012 and 2013
will
> > > completely remove the impact probabilities," he says.
> > >
> > > "If this is the case, why are we worried now? If it's a 1-in-15,000
shot
> > > and we come up a loser," there's still time to mount a tagging and a
> > > deflection mission, he says.
> > >
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> > >
> >
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Received on Mon 25 Jul 2005 11:04:31 PM PDT