[meteorite-list] RE: Meteorite sales doing just fine!

From: Matson, Robert <ROBERT.D.MATSON_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Wed Apr 12 22:08:12 2006
Message-ID: <A8044CCD89B24B458AE36254DCA2BD07A4E9D1_at_0005-its-exmp01.us.saic.com>

Mike reports:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060412/ap_on_sc/meteorite_auction

> Looks like the meteorite market is booming to me!

I get the feeling that if you took a poll of the list members
here, most would argue that the meteorite market has been at best
flat the last five years (and I would opine that it is actually
down rather than flat). The combination of exquisite specimens,
high-profile advertising, and Bonhams' well-healed bidders
predictably leads to slightly inflated prices. Such an auction
is not a reliable indicator of "general public" meteorite commerce.

Compare meteorite prices with those of precious metals, oil,
or even the S&P 500 over the last five years. Space rocks were
hardly a good investment. New collectors waiting until today
to acquire their first meteorite have a lot more buying power --
and a greater variety of specimens from which to choose -- than
they would have in 2001.

The only thing that will drive meteorite prices up at this point
is greater demand. We don't have a meteorite-equivalent of
De Beers stock-piling meteorites and reducing the supply. Supply
increases every year; in fact the *rate* of supply increase has
itself been increasing over the last decade:

Bull # Ant. Other Tot.
------ ---- ----- ----
MB 80: 42 136 178
MB 81: 20 161 181
MB 82: 521 453 974
MB 83: 473 425 898
MB 84: 842 498 1340 (NWA series begins: NWA 001-032)
MB 85: 658 718 1376
MB 86: 661 493 1154
MB 87: 1048 850 1898
MB 88: 753 857 1610
MB 89: 1010 758 1768

3-year moving averages for total new meteorites (smoothes out
volatile Antarctic component):

1997: 444.3
1998: 684.3
1999: 1070.7
2000: 1204.7
2001: 1290.0
2002: 1476.0
2003: 1554.0
2004: 1758.7

Will MB 90 (2006) be the first year that shows a decline in
the 3-year moving average? Depends a lot on the Antarctic
totals in the upcoming Bulletin.

--Rob
Received on Wed 12 Apr 2006 03:39:03 PM PDT