[meteorite-list] Asteroid may be set to slam Mars in Jan.

From: Göran Axelsson <axelsson_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Fri, 21 Dec 2007 09:13:45 +0100
Message-ID: <476B75B9.2000102_at_acc.umu.se>

"Scientists say the object currently has a 1-in-75 chance of colliding
with the planet, but that probability is expected to go down over the
next month as more observations are made."

Let me guess... it has a 74 in 75 probability to go down and 1 in 75
chance to go up?

I'm always amused over this formulation. It always appears like a
reassuring message, "Don't worry, it will go away."

"If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it'll likely aim near the
equator, ..."
What? They don't know if it will hit, but if it hit Mars it will do it
near the equator. Is this a statistical centre of where it will hit
because the equator lies halfway between the poles.

Okay, maybe the error in the predicted orbit is really small and just
overlaps Mars at one side of the planet....

Anyhow, a really interesting scenario and I hope I will be able to see a
major impact on Mars with my own eyes through the big telescope in the
local observatory.


tracy latimer wrote:
> http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22350742/
> Watch the skies! We may be getting (okay a LONG time down the road) more Martian meteorites...:)
> Tracy Latimer
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Received on Fri 21 Dec 2007 03:13:45 AM PST

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