[meteorite-list] Asteroid may be set to slam Mars in Jan.

From: David Pensenstadler <dfpens01_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Fri, 21 Dec 2007 09:36:09 -0800 (PST)
Message-ID: <732762.32969.qm_at_web90305.mail.mud.yahoo.com>

My guess is that the asteroid will take out the Mars
Odyssey (THEMIS) satellite before hitting Opportunity
on the surface.

Happy Holidays to all

Dave
--- lebofsky at lpl.arizona.edu wrote:

> Hi G?ran:
>
> It is all in the timing. If I remember correctly,
> when orbits are
> calculated, the greatest uncertainty is in the time
> of perihelion passage
> (where it is in its orbit). So, while they know the
> inclination of the
> orbit (where it will be when it crosses the orbit of
> Mars), the greatest
> question is will Mars still be there (or not there
> yet). That is the
> greatest uncertainty.
>
> With a better orbit (and better timing), the
> untertainty goes down and so
> the "target ellipse" gets smaller. When it is big,
> there is a greater
> likelihood that Mars will be in it. When the ellipse
> gets smaller, the
> likelihood is that Mars will not be in it.
>
> Larry
>
> On Fri, December 21, 2007 1:13 am, G?ran Axelsson
> wrote:
> > "Scientists say the object currently has a 1-in-75
> chance of colliding
> > with the planet, but that probability is expected
> to go down over the next
> > month as more observations are made."
> >
> > Let me guess... it has a 74 in 75 probability to
> go down and 1 in 75
> > chance to go up?
> >
> > I'm always amused over this formulation. It always
> appears like a
> > reassuring message, "Don't worry, it will go
> away."
> >
> > "If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it'll
> likely aim near the
> > equator, ..." What? They don't know if it will
> hit, but if it hit Mars it
> > will do it near the equator. Is this a statistical
> centre of where it will
> > hit because the equator lies halfway between the
> poles.
> >
> > Okay, maybe the error in the predicted orbit is
> really small and just
> > overlaps Mars at one side of the planet....
> >
> > Anyhow, a really interesting scenario and I hope I
> will be able to see a
> > major impact on Mars with my own eyes through the
> big telescope in the
> > local observatory.
> >
> > /G?ran
> >
> >
> > tracy latimer wrote:
> >> http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22350742/
> >>
> >>
> >> Watch the skies! We may be getting (okay a LONG
> time down the road)
> >> more Martian meteorites...:)
> >>
> >> Tracy Latimer
> >>
> >>
> >>
>
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Received on Fri 21 Dec 2007 12:36:09 PM PST