[meteorite-list] Market Prices

From: E.P. Grondine <epgrondine_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Sun, 7 Dec 2008 17:10:09 -0800 (PST)
Message-ID: <944551.66883.qm_at_web36907.mail.mud.yahoo.com>

Hi all -

For the last several years I hav had a different way of thinking about
money.

Let me try to explain. It appears that we've had a major impact megatsunami about 1 per 1000 years in the recent past. Given the current coastal population densities, the next one should kill about 60,000,000. Divide
60,000,000 by 1,000, and you end up with 6,000 per year. Divide 6,000 by
365 days, and you can take it down to hours and minutes if you like.

Then add Tunguska class impactors at the rate of 1 per 100 years. Of course, if it hits someplace remote, say farmlands or mid ocean, then you only loose a few, close to 0. But if it hits a city, you loose 20,000,000. So what are the chances of a city being hit? how much of the Earth's surface is urban? Then divide, and add to the 6,000.

Oh, and then there's climate collapse from a cometary dust veil. The population is 6,000,000,000, and how many die due to starvation? 100,000?
200,000? 1,000,000? 500,000,000? And what is the frequency of occurrence? Break it down to a yearly number and add to the two numbers above.

And how many dead in a large land impact, and how often? At one point I tried to break it down to lives lost per year, then to per day, then to per hour. Your numbers may vary, but then what do I know?

E.P. Grondine
Man and Impact in the Americas

PS - As far as meteorites go, discretionary spending is way down. (I just had an order for 2 copies of my new book "Amazing Stories" canceled.) Some friends report sales running about 10% of normal. In economic terms, a panic has occurred, and the velocity of the money supply has fallen way off. Obama is ready to hit the ground running January 20, and confidence should return, and fairly quickly, but many people have been hurt, and hurt bad. Then there's always the unforeseen to think about.

A little sci-fi. There is no doubt that videos increase the market value of falls, as do major "brand" names. Right now we have electronic picture frames, perhaps someday we'll have electronic video display boxes.

Here's to better days ahead,
Ed



 






      
Received on Sun 07 Dec 2008 08:10:09 PM PST