[meteorite-list] The future market for meteorites

From: Martin Altmann <altmann_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Wed, 26 Mar 2008 16:52:09 +0100
Message-ID: <00b001c88f59$5b2fa6d0$177f2a59_at_name86d88d87e2>

I have also some thoughts...

Personally I think, that it's very unlikely, that the "market" could fall
off more or that prices could drop more.

One point is that "demand"-thing. I'm convinced that the utmost part of
people on the globe doesn't know, what a meteorite is at all and a even
larger part isn't aware, that one can even buy such things.
One circumstance we all can observe: Whenever a meteorite jumps out of the
Petri dish of the meteorite collectors' scene and is offered for sale in
another environment, it will get a remarkably higher price, as the
specialists would pay for it.
You could observe it on the one end of the spectrum, the so called
"high-end"-specimens - remember last years auction in New York, the irons
Lang gave to an auction recentlyin Tucson, or several other Bonhams and
other auctions during the last 2 years. As soon it was an iron, or an
aesthetically presented stone or a Mars or Moon, the results were a multiple
of that, what we collectors would be call a "normal" price. They were paid
rather like "high-end" pieces from the mineral and fossils sector.

On the other end of the spectrum, you can observe the same. Small meteorites
are sold in the esoteric branch, in the gifts branch or as jewellery,
also at prices above the collectors level.

Therefore I have the feeling, that there is a huge potential of demand
slumbering. A demand, which theoretically will exceed enormously the
combined types of demand E.P was specifying. A demand, which maybe couldn't
be satisfied by the limited amount of meteorites we have.
The key question is in my eyes the popularization of meteorites.
And I would say, that the popularization of meteorites is just as recently
beginning.
In former times a Nininger wrote tons of popular books, distributed low
threshold pieces, even tinkered his spherules stars; later a Haag made a
good show on shows, was going in TV - but now we are living in different
times, in an era of media, information and internet. (where e.g. the Korean
mountain farmer is made happy with such valuable information like in what
for a robe a Miss Hilton was seen on which event).
In my eyes it is unavoidable, that more and more people will get attentive
to meteorites. The demand will increase.
I mean, we personally see it quite well on the flow of reorders by those
places, which sell the Moon and Mars boxes, which are our attempt to
popularize meteorites at a non-specialized public.
Well in principle for the meteorite collectors it's not the worst thing,
that most offerers of meteorites have got their hands full in organizing
always new meteorites for them and not enough time for advertising to a
broader public.
But if I compare, what happened the last decade, to the decade before, which
is helpful to bring meteorites in the awareness of the people - small and
large exhibitions in museums, observatories, planetaria on fairs,
documentations on TV, the number of reports in newspapers and in the news,
movies, internet, the Mars missions and so on, then I've to say, that
there's going on a lot more than ever ago and than in those times where
collecting meteorites was a niche of a niche of a niche.

Second point is to estimate, if the market will slow down, how much space is
today left, for the prices to fall.
The advocates, who are preaching the supply&demand role for the meteorite
markt forget often another simple capitalistic axiom:
If the production of a good is more expensive as the price, which is paid
for, it won't be produced anymore.

Now let's take a look into ebay - there are sold sometimes kilogram-lots of
mixed weathered unclassified NWA chondrites at 25-50$,
hence at a price of an imported European cheese or of a better wall paint.
(Won't repeat, that there are only a few tons of that stuff. Meteorites not
cheese).
To find in desert and to assemble such a lot consisting out of mixed
chondrites costs a lot of time and manpower.
For rarer types, if one takes a look in the statistics exceedingly more.
Some transportation costs to USA or Europe...other costs.
How likely would it be, that these lots could be offered at 10$ or 5$?
Would the seller get a profit then or an break-even?
Would the people in the Sahara still pick them up, if they would get even
less money for them than now?
Probably not.
Btw. you could observe it on the shows of the last 2 years, Munich, Tucson.
Different than in former times the Moroccans themselves don't bring anymore
that huge number of grab boxes there. Shortage of the finds is one thing,
other is, they don't bring that type of stones to the shows anymore, because
it isn't at the current price level not profitable anymore.
Therefore I'd think, much cheaper than today, desert can't get.

Well, and the other deserts..
American deserts, as E.P. mentioned.
The very most stones found there are weathered chondrites.
Now let us think, whether it could be possible to sell them at 50$/kg to
make a living with meteorite hunting in USA.
The living costs in USA are higher than in Algeria or Mauretania.
Let's say for taxes, car, other costs our hunter spends 50% of his sales.
How many grams per hour has he to find then to meet the minimum wage of 8.5$
(or whatever you have in USA), if he sells them at 50$/g.
340 grams per hour?

Now we have to ask Sunny or Bob Verish, how many grams per hour their
average is.
I suppose for the required quota one would need a strewnfield like an NWA
869...

So in my eyes either the American finds can't be sold as cheap as Sahara
today, or no professional hunter would hunt in the American deserts.

Only thoughts....
Martin
Received on Wed 26 Mar 2008 11:52:09 AM PDT