[meteorite-list] NASA Rules Out Earth Impact in 2036 for Asteroid Apophis

From: Ron Baalke <baalke_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2013 13:00:13 -0800 (PST)
Message-ID: <201301102100.r0AL0DRW004345_at_zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-017

NASA Rules Out Earth Impact in 2036 for Asteroid Apophis
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
January 10, 2013

PASADENA, Calif. -- NASA scientists at the agency's Jet Propulsion
Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., effectively have ruled out the
possibility the asteroid Aphophis will impact Earth during a close flyby
in 2036. The scientists used updated information obtained by
NASA-supported telescopes in 2011 and 2012, as well as new data from the
time leading up to Aphophis' distant Earth flyby yesterday (Jan. 9).

Discovered in 2004, the asteroid, which is the size of three-and-a-half
football fields, gathered the immediate attention of space scientists
and the media when initial calculations of its orbit indicated a 2.7
percent possibility of an Earth impact during a close flyby in 2029.
Data discovered during a search of old astronomical images provided the
additional information required to rule out the 2029 impact scenario,
but a remote possibility of one in 2036 remained - until yesterday.

"With the new data provided by the Magdalena Ridge [New Mexico Institute
of Mining and Technology] and the Pan-STARRS [Univ. of Hawaii] optical
observatories, along with very recent data provided by the Goldstone
Solar System Radar, we have effectively ruled out the possibility of an
Earth impact by Apophis in 2036," said Don Yeomans, manager of NASA's
Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL. "The impact odds as they stand
now are less than one in a million, which makes us comfortable saying we
can effectively rule out an Earth impact in 2036. Our interest in
asteroid Apophis will essentially be for its scientific interest for the
foreseeable future."

The April 13, 2029, flyby of asteroid Apophis will be one for the record
books. On that date, Apophis will become the closest flyby of an
asteroid of its size when it comes no closer than 19,400 miles (31,300
kilometers) above Earth's surface.

"But much sooner, a closer approach by a lesser-known asteroid is going
to occur in the middle of next month when a 40-meter-sized asteroid,
2012 DA14, flies safely past Earth's surface at about 17,200 miles,"
said Yeomans. "With new telescopes coming online, the upgrade of
existing telescopes and the continued refinement of our orbital
determination process, there's never a dull moment working on near-Earth
objects."

NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth
using both ground and space-based telescopes. The Near-Earth Object
Observations Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers these
objects, characterizes a subset of them and plots their orbits to
determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.

The Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL manages the technical and
scientific activities for NASA's Near-Earth Object Program of the
Science Mission Directorate in Washington. JPL is a division of the
California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

For more information about asteroids and near-Earth objects, visit:
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroidwatch Updates about near-Earth objects
are also available by following AsteroidWatch on Twitter at
http://www.twitter.com/asteroidwatch .

DC Agle 818-393-9011
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
agle at jpl.nasa.gov

Dwayne Brown 202-358-1726
NASA Headquarters, Washington
dwayne.c.brown at nasa.gov

2013-017
Received on Thu 10 Jan 2013 04:00:13 PM PST