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Forecast Calls for Exciting Leonids Meteor Shower


http://www.space.com/science/astronomy/leonids.html

Forecast Calls for Exciting Meteor Shower
By John Shibley

Sep 17 1999 18:16:04 ET 

Scientists are beginning to understand a November
meteor shower called the Leonids.

You might recall them as last fall's much-anticipated meteor storm. Early in
1998, the shower's parent comet, Temple-Tuttle, swept through Earth's
neighborhood with a fresh batch of dust, as it does every 33 years.

Shortly after the comet's previous visit, in 1966, western North Americans
were treated to a 20-minute storm of 144,000 meteors per hour. Memories of
the downpour sent satellite operators running for cover (Hubble even closed
its telescope door) and sky enthusiasts dashing for clear skies.

As it turned out, the '98 Leonids didn't storm. Not only that, meteor
activity peaked 16 hours before predictions, yielding a paltry 260 meteors
per hour for observers in Europe.

So why the fizzle? David Asher of Ireland's Armagh Observatory and Rob
McNaught of the Australian National Observatory have an answer. They say
Earth plowed through cometary dust twisted into a braid by gravitational
effects within our solar system. Their modeling accounts for gravity's
wildcard and predicts not only what this year's Leonids will do, but also
when they will do it . . . to within five minutes.

The forecast? McNaught and Asher say 1999 and 2000 will produce exceptional
showers, in the range of 1,200 meteors an hour.

This year's peak will be on November 17 at 9:08 p.m. EST, which will favor
early-morning viewers in Europe and the Middle East. Morning is the best
time to see meteors because it is Earth's morning hemisphere that dives
headlong into dust along our planet's orbital path around the Sun.

North American meteor-watchers can expect 20 meteors an hour on the mornings
of November 17 and 18.

The 2000 Leonids will sport a similar climb and falloff, with observers in
Asia having front-row seats. But storm warnings could be posted for 2001 and
2002, when rates could climb to 35,000 and 25,000 meteors an hour,
respectively. Watchers in the Eastern Hemisphere are favored for those
potentially spectacular views as well.

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