[meteorite-list] 2002 Leonid Meteor Storm Forecast

From: Ron Baalke <baalke_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Apr 22 10:06:59 2004
Message-ID: <200210101534.IAA06867_at_zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/09oct_leonidsforecast.htm
Meteor Storm Forecast
NASA Science News
October 9, 2002

NASA scientists have just released new predictions for the 2002 Leonid
meteor storm.

A New Mexican desert. A graveyard in West Virginia. The
International Space Station (ISS). What do these places have in common?
Experts say they're good spots to watch the 2002 Leonid meteor storm, which
is expected this year on Nov. 19th.

"We've calculated meteor rates for 58 cities around the world and for the
space station," says Bill Cooke of the Marshall Space Flight Center's Space
Environments Team. "People who live in North America or Europe or onboard
the ISS are going to see a lot of Leonids next month."

Leonid meteor storms happen when Earth plows through clouds of dusty debris
shed by comet 55/P Tempel-Tuttle. Right now Earth is heading for two such
clouds. "We'll collide with both of them on Tuesday, Nov. 19th," says Cooke.
"The first cloud will cause a flurry of meteors over Europe at about 0400
UT. We expect sky watchers in the countryside (away from bright city lights)
to see between 500 and 1000 Leonids per hour."

Earth will plow into the second cloud about six hours later (1030 UT or 5:30
a.m. EST) and cause an even bigger outburst over North America. "Observers
here in the United States could see as many as 2000 per hour," he predicts.

Other parts of the world will be sprinkled with Leonids, too, but nothing
like Europe or North America. If the predictions are correct, observers in
Asia, Australia, South America and much of Africa will count no more than a
few dozen bright meteors in a one-hour span.

                    2002 Leonid Meteor Storm Predictions
       Click on the name of the city nearest your hometown. [sample]
                 U.S. Cities Around the World

       Albuquerque, Minneapolis, Aberdeen, Mexico City,
       NM MN Scotland Mexico

       Anchorage, AK New Orleans, Amsterdam, the Moscow, Russia
                       LA Netherlands

       Atlanta, GA New York, NY Bangkok, Nairobi, Kenya
                                       Thailand

       Bangor, ME Omaha, NE Beijing, China New Delhi,
                                                       India

       Boise, ID Philadelphia, Cairo, Egypt Paris, France
                       PA

       Boston, MA Phoenix, AZ Dublin, Perth,
                                       Ireland Australia

       Chicago, IL Portland, OR Edinburgh, Reykjavik,
                                       Scotland Iceland

                                                       Rio de
       Cleveland, OH Raleigh, NC Frankfurt, Janeiro,
                                       Germany
                                                       Brazil

       Denver, CO Sacramento, CA Hong Kong Rome, Italy

       Detroit, MI Salt Lake Istanbul, Santiago,
                       City, UT Turkey Chile

       Honolulu, HI Seattle, WA Jakarta, São Paulo,
                                       Indonesia Brazil

       Houston, TX St. Louis, MO Jerusalem, Seoul, South
                                       Israel Korea

       Las Vegas, NV Washington, Johannesburg, Stockholm,
                       D.C. South Africa Sweden

       Los Angeles, London,
       CA Wichita, KS England Tokyo, Japan

                                                       coming soon:
       Miami, FL . Manila, the Canadian
                                       Philippines
                                                       cities

Above: Bill Cooke of the NASA/MSFC Space Environments Group prepared these
city-by-city forecasts of Leonid activity in 2002. The colored curves denote
predictions by three teams (Asher-McNaught, Jenniskens, Lyytinen-Van
Flandern) who successfully forecast the 2001 storm. Note that the rates
(vertical axis) correspond to 15-minute intervals; also, all times
(horizontal axis) are local--that is, the time in the city specified. [more]

Although millions of people will experience either the European outburst or
the North American outburst, only three people will see both: the crew of
the International Space Station.

"The ISS will be flying over Europe during the first outburst," explains Rob
Suggs, leader of the Space Environments Team. "Then it will pass over North
America during the second outburst. Perfect timing!" Astronauts looking out
the station's windows could spot more meteors than anyone else.

Meteor watching from the space station isn't like meteor watching from the
ground. On Earth we look up to see shooting stars. On the ISS they look
down. That's because meteoroids glow when they disintegrate in Earth's
atmosphere at an altitude of about 80 km. The ISS orbits Earth about 300 km
higher than that, so from the point of view of an astronaut meteors appear
underfoot. (Astronaut Frank Culbertson described his experience watching the
2001 Leonids from the ISS in Science_at_NASA's "Space Station Meteor Shower.")

Observers on the ISS and on Earth will be equally bothered during this
year's shower by a glaring full Moon. "Moonlight will reduce the number of
Leonids seen by some factor between 2 and 5," says Cooke. "We took this into
account when we calculated our forecasts."

Along the east coast of North America, the meteor outburst will happen just
before local dawn. "That's good," says Suggs, "because at that time of
night, the Moon will be low in the western sky. Try to find a dark observing
site where the Moon sets early behind tall buildings or surrounding hills."
A country graveyard, say, in one of the mountainous Appalachian states might
be an ideal spot, he laughs.

In Europe and in western parts of North America, the Moon will be high in
the sky when the Leonids arrive. "That's not so good," he says. Moonlight
scattered from air molecules and aerosols (e.g., water droplets, dust and
pollution) makes the air glow and interferes with meteor watching. The glow
will be less in places where the air is dry and pollution-free. Suggs
recommends traveling to the desert, if possible, or to a mountain which
rises above the local aerosol layer. "A desert mountaintop would be the
perfect combination," he says.

Indeed, that's where Suggs is going, to the Sacramento Mountains of southern
New Mexico. He's leading a team there to record the North American outburst
using image-intensified video cameras. "Our job," explains Suggs, "is to
improve meteoroid activity forecasts for spacecraft. Observing these showers
from Earth helps refine our models." Suggs will also have teams in Spain,
Alabama, the Canary Islands and Arizona, "so we'll be able to monitor both
peaks."

"I'd rather watch the shower from the ISS," allows Suggs, but it could be
worse: New Mexico is ones of the best places on Earth to see the 2002
Leonids, and "it beats a graveyard any day."
Received on Thu 10 Oct 2002 11:34:39 AM PDT