[meteorite-list] 2002 Leonid Meteor Storm Forecast

From: Jonathan Gore <jonathan.g_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Apr 22 10:06:59 2004
Message-ID: <034501c27074$2b7413e0$69415c40_at_GoreComputer>

Remember that these figures are very rough. The number seen varies from
person to person. They are often inaccurate. But they do give a very good
idea of what to expect.


Jonathan M. Gore
jonathan.g_at_vol.com
astrojonathan_at_msn.com
The Wonderful Wolfgang Mozart & Albert Einstein
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ron Baalke" <baalke_at_zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
To: "Meteorite Mailing List" <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 10, 2002 11:34 AM
Subject: [meteorite-list] 2002 Leonid Meteor Storm Forecast


|
| http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/09oct_leonidsforecast.htm
| Meteor Storm Forecast
| NASA Science News
| October 9, 2002
|
| NASA scientists have just released new predictions for the 2002 Leonid
| meteor storm.
|
| A New Mexican desert. A graveyard in West Virginia. The
| International Space Station (ISS). What do these places have in common?
| Experts say they're good spots to watch the 2002 Leonid meteor storm,
which
| is expected this year on Nov. 19th.
|
| "We've calculated meteor rates for 58 cities around the world and for the
| space station," says Bill Cooke of the Marshall Space Flight Center's
Space
| Environments Team. "People who live in North America or Europe or onboard
| the ISS are going to see a lot of Leonids next month."
|
| Leonid meteor storms happen when Earth plows through clouds of dusty
debris
| shed by comet 55/P Tempel-Tuttle. Right now Earth is heading for two such
| clouds. "We'll collide with both of them on Tuesday, Nov. 19th," says
Cooke.
| "The first cloud will cause a flurry of meteors over Europe at about 0400
| UT. We expect sky watchers in the countryside (away from bright city
lights)
| to see between 500 and 1000 Leonids per hour."
|
| Earth will plow into the second cloud about six hours later (1030 UT or
5:30
| a.m. EST) and cause an even bigger outburst over North America. "Observers
| here in the United States could see as many as 2000 per hour," he
predicts.
|
| Other parts of the world will be sprinkled with Leonids, too, but nothing
| like Europe or North America. If the predictions are correct, observers in
| Asia, Australia, South America and much of Africa will count no more than
a
| few dozen bright meteors in a one-hour span.
|
| 2002 Leonid Meteor Storm Predictions
| Click on the name of the city nearest your hometown. [sample]
| U.S. Cities Around the World
|
| Albuquerque, Minneapolis, Aberdeen, Mexico City,
| NM MN Scotland Mexico
|
| Anchorage, AK New Orleans, Amsterdam, the Moscow, Russia
| LA Netherlands
|
| Atlanta, GA New York, NY Bangkok, Nairobi, Kenya
| Thailand
|
| Bangor, ME Omaha, NE Beijing, China New Delhi,
| India
|
| Boise, ID Philadelphia, Cairo, Egypt Paris, France
| PA
|
| Boston, MA Phoenix, AZ Dublin, Perth,
| Ireland Australia
|
| Chicago, IL Portland, OR Edinburgh, Reykjavik,
| Scotland Iceland
|
| Rio de
| Cleveland, OH Raleigh, NC Frankfurt, Janeiro,
| Germany
| Brazil
|
| Denver, CO Sacramento, CA Hong Kong Rome, Italy
|
| Detroit, MI Salt Lake Istanbul, Santiago,
| City, UT Turkey Chile
|
| Honolulu, HI Seattle, WA Jakarta, São Paulo,
| Indonesia Brazil
|
| Houston, TX St. Louis, MO Jerusalem, Seoul, South
| Israel Korea
|
| Las Vegas, NV Washington, Johannesburg, Stockholm,
| D.C. South Africa Sweden
|
| Los Angeles, London,
| CA Wichita, KS England Tokyo, Japan
|
| coming soon:
| Miami, FL . Manila, the Canadian
| Philippines
| cities
|
| Above: Bill Cooke of the NASA/MSFC Space Environments Group prepared these
| city-by-city forecasts of Leonid activity in 2002. The colored curves
denote
| predictions by three teams (Asher-McNaught, Jenniskens, Lyytinen-Van
| Flandern) who successfully forecast the 2001 storm. Note that the rates
| (vertical axis) correspond to 15-minute intervals; also, all times
| (horizontal axis) are local--that is, the time in the city specified.
[more]
|
| Although millions of people will experience either the European outburst
or
| the North American outburst, only three people will see both: the crew of
| the International Space Station.
|
| "The ISS will be flying over Europe during the first outburst," explains
Rob
| Suggs, leader of the Space Environments Team. "Then it will pass over
North
| America during the second outburst. Perfect timing!" Astronauts looking
out
| the station's windows could spot more meteors than anyone else.
|
| Meteor watching from the space station isn't like meteor watching from the
| ground. On Earth we look up to see shooting stars. On the ISS they look
| down. That's because meteoroids glow when they disintegrate in Earth's
| atmosphere at an altitude of about 80 km. The ISS orbits Earth about 300
km
| higher than that, so from the point of view of an astronaut meteors appear
| underfoot. (Astronaut Frank Culbertson described his experience watching
the
| 2001 Leonids from the ISS in Science_at_NASA's "Space Station Meteor
Shower.")
|
| Observers on the ISS and on Earth will be equally bothered during this
| year's shower by a glaring full Moon. "Moonlight will reduce the number of
| Leonids seen by some factor between 2 and 5," says Cooke. "We took this
into
| account when we calculated our forecasts."
|
| Along the east coast of North America, the meteor outburst will happen
just
| before local dawn. "That's good," says Suggs, "because at that time of
| night, the Moon will be low in the western sky. Try to find a dark
observing
| site where the Moon sets early behind tall buildings or surrounding
hills."
| A country graveyard, say, in one of the mountainous Appalachian states
might
| be an ideal spot, he laughs.
|
| In Europe and in western parts of North America, the Moon will be high in
| the sky when the Leonids arrive. "That's not so good," he says. Moonlight
| scattered from air molecules and aerosols (e.g., water droplets, dust and
| pollution) makes the air glow and interferes with meteor watching. The
glow
| will be less in places where the air is dry and pollution-free. Suggs
| recommends traveling to the desert, if possible, or to a mountain which
| rises above the local aerosol layer. "A desert mountaintop would be the
| perfect combination," he says.
|
| Indeed, that's where Suggs is going, to the Sacramento Mountains of
southern
| New Mexico. He's leading a team there to record the North American
outburst
| using image-intensified video cameras. "Our job," explains Suggs, "is to
| improve meteoroid activity forecasts for spacecraft. Observing these
showers
| from Earth helps refine our models." Suggs will also have teams in Spain,
| Alabama, the Canary Islands and Arizona, "so we'll be able to monitor both
| peaks."
|
| "I'd rather watch the shower from the ISS," allows Suggs, but it could be
| worse: New Mexico is ones of the best places on Earth to see the 2002
| Leonids, and "it beats a graveyard any day."
|
| ______________________________________________
| Meteorite-list mailing list
| Meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com
| http://www.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
Received on Thu 10 Oct 2002 11:46:16 AM PDT