[meteorite-list] Re: OT: Death fears vs. probability My un-expert opinion

From: Sterling K. Webb <kelly_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Sat Sep 3 23:14:44 2005
Message-ID: <431A667D.A498152C_at_bhil.com>

Hi, Mark,

    You said, "It is not like the problem with
the levees is new....THEY HAVE BEEN INADEQUATE
FOR OVER 100 YEARS."
    It's probably because I live in a Mississippi
River town (much further up than New Orleans),
where we were flooded to over ten feet deep in
our downtown, without water or electrical power
for three weeks in the flood of '93, that I
take a certain natural interest in levees, floods,
high water and blues songs about'em.
    The 19th century levees in New Orleans, built
after the 1832 flood, were adequate for almost a
century, until the 1927 flood. The levee system was
completely redone after the great flood of 1927,
by people who knew you had to build and plan for
the future, a trait we have lost today.
    These levees worked perfectly in the 1965
hurricane that hit New Orleans head on and that
was a worse storm than this recent one. They have
been allowed to deteriorate badly over the last
15-20 years, and what happened this week is the
reward you get for that kind of economy.
    My point was that these disasters are NOT
incalculable events against which humans are helpless.
We have known how to fight these things for thousands
of years. Sophisticated flood and water management
is one of the oldest human technologies and one of
the best understood.
    40% of the nation of Holland consists of land
reclaimed from the sea since the 13th century by long
effort. So, by definition 40% of Holland is below sea
level, and I hear no one proclaiming that Holland
must be abandoned due to global warming as certain
List members have said of New Orleans and the Gulf
Coast generally.
    All that is needed to prevent these disasters
is to do what's needed. It's not a mystery or a
question of luck. Just spend the money; do the job.
2 or 3 billion more spent over the last decade would
have prevented this flooding and most of this
disaster in New Orleans. It would have been a
great investment, saving scores of billions and
a lot of human misery and death.
    The devastation in southern Mississippi is far
worse. Much of the worse affected areas have not
yet been penetrated by anybody from the outside,
so we do not yet know how bad it is. It was not
preventable like the disaster in New Orleans.
    We all feel an impulse to criticize the
failings of response, but people fail to measure
the size of the problem. A first step is to
consider that the affected area is roughly
the size of Great Britain!
    Alright, Great Britain is devastated -- how
long before you get everybody evacuated and into
a shelter? What? It's the next day (or week) and
you haven't finished? Shame...
    The problems of scale are often not solvable
by money nor preparedness. This doesn't mean that
everything about this response shouldn't be
scrutinized in great detail; there is a lot
to learn that will help in the future, which
contains, certainly, disasters as great or
greater...
    Even a very small asteroid would be far, far
worse, so we get a slight glimpse at what the failure
to detect and determine orbits for ALL the NEA's
could cost the human race.
    For now, sent money.


Sterling K. Webb
-----------------------------------------------
Mark Miconi wrote:

> I agree with you Rob.
>
> It is the same with the losses in Iraq. The military has accidents every
> year, even when not at war. Where are the protestors when marines die from
> hypothermia in a swamp, where are they when men die jumping from an airplane
> and crash into the desert? Why is it a needless death when they die in Iraq
> and not when it is a training exercise.
>
> Many in America are bitching about the time it is taking to help the
> stranded. If I remember correctly they were told to EVACUATE New Orleans. It
> is not like the problem with the levees is new....THEY HAVE BEEN INADEQUETE
> FOR OVER 100 YEARS. I do not remember seeing throngs marching in the city
> prior to the storm TRYING TO ESCAPE, yet they can sure get out in horrible
> conditions to loot, rob, rape and murder now. If 30,000 people were in the
> streets trying to evacuate I think someone might have noticed
>
> Why is not the ever present and all knowing Michael Farmer running the damn
> show if he is so freaking smart? Farmer your mouth is always running about
> the wrong shit. If you know so damn much get your ass to the region and help
> our president do it right. Where is all your massive fortune Mike? Lets see
> a public contribution, other than your witty bullshit here on the list. How
> many families from the region are living with you? I HAVE AN OFFER ON
> CRAIGSLIST TO TAKE A FAMILY OF 4.
>
> MIKE, SHUT UP AND DO SOMETHING TANGIBLE FOR A CHANGE.
>
> I do not care what you did in the past...THIS IS HERE AND THIS IS NOW, WHAT
> HAVE YOU DONE FOR THEM LATELY?
>
> I do not make enough money to save the world. My family has already donated
> $300.00, and my brother in law who is the biggest DJ in Arizona on KMLE in
> Phoenix is on the air raising money and starting a clothes drive. My sons
> class is taking contributions of school supplies for the children of the
> disaster including giving up some of there own badly needed supplies.
> At my office we all paid for a week($2.00 a day) of casual dress(jeans) and
> this week we will all wear our dress clothes and send the money to the red
> cross.
>
> YES things were done wrong, and yes they could have been done better....THAT
> DISCUSSION IS FOR A LATER TIME AND ON ANOTHER LIST.
>
> If anybody HERE thinks you can do better get your boots on the ground...if
> you can help, then do it. You know that $5.00 is not much today NOT EVEN 2
> GALLONS OF GAS, but if all of us sent $5.00 to the Red Cross it will make a
> difference, all your bitching is doing is wasting air and creating
> greenhouse gasses.
>
> Our people...AMERICANS, need us now. Later we can get together and discuss
> what we need to do to fix what happened. Now we just need to open our homes
> our wallets and our hearts and help....who cares who screwed this up, lets
> just fix it and hang those that be damned later.
>
> No one on earth could have stopped this storm, no one on earth is
> responsible for the storm, everyone can have a hand in fixing it.
>
> Alot of people here bitch that there is too much government in America, and
> then expect that same government to pick their asses up out of the thick of
> things when ultimately the responsibility for your OWN LIFE RESTS WITH YOU.
> Next election get out and vote, get involved, your government is YOU when
> you participate.
>
> Thats my look on the issue. My challenge to everyone is to quit looking for
> the devil to hang and get your asses in gear, give money, give clothes,
> start auctions to benefit the people that need it most, offer to take in a
> family if you can do it. JUST DO SOMETHING OTHER THAN ARGUE ABOUT WHAT
> HAPPENED, IT WILL NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT IT HAPPENED.
>
> To everyone that has given already...THANK YOU and find a way to give some
> more.
>
> Thanks for listening, and please find a way to help.
>
> Mark M.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Matson, Robert" <ROBERT.D.MATSON_at_saic.com>
> To: "'Sterling K. Webb'" <kelly_at_bhil.com>;
> <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
> Sent: Friday, September 02, 2005 12:21 PM
> Subject: [meteorite-list] OT: Death fears vs. probability
>
> > Sterling makes some excellent points about the psychological
> > impact of tragic deaths attributed to various flavors of
> > Mother Nature flexing her muscles. When it comes to fear and
> > risk, humans can be very irrational. They worry about tornadoes,
> > hurricanes, volcanoes, supervolcanoes, tsunamis, global warming,
> > airplane crashes, lightning, shark attacks and bear attacks, not
> > to mention whatever the latest fear of the week might be (e.g.
> > anthrax, dirty bombs, West Nile virus, Ebola).
> >
> > The common factor in all of these fears is that the probability
> > of dying from any one of them is practically zero. In fact, if
> > you add up all the probabilities of dying from each of these, the
> > chances are still next to zero. But this is what people worry
> > about because it's reported each and every day on their TV sets.
> > They think nothing of getting in their cars each day and driving
> > to and from work (perhaps smoking a cigarette or wolfing down a
> > supersize meal from their favorite fast-food joint as they do so.)
> > When 2000 people die from a hurricane-caused flood, that's news.
> > But 42,000+ people dying in automobile accidents ANNUALLY in
> > the U.S. alone? No one cares. No one is suggesting that we ban
> > automobiles. But if there were 42,000 deaths a year from shark
> > attacks, it would be a different story.
> >
> > Here's a list of some selected average annual deaths for the
> > U.S.:
> >
> > Shark Attack 1
> > Roller Skates 10
> > Dog Bites 20
> > Avalanche 20-25
> > Mud/Landslide 25-50
> > Skydiving 30
> > Skiing 34
> > Hurricane (1940-1981 avg.) 47
> > Bee/wasp stings 50
> > Personal Watercraft 54
> > Lightning '95 89
> > Chickenpox 90
> > Needle Sticks 100
> > Fire Ants 100
> > Flood 40-81 109
> > Tornado 40-81 128
> > Police Officers 2000 151
> > Lightning 1940-1981 188
> > Airline 200
> > Car Deer Collisions 211
> > Campylobacter(chicken) 200-1000
> > IllImm Mex-US Border '97 300
> > Childbirth 302
> > CJD brain disease 300-400
> > Heat related illness 318 Newsweek 8/13/01
> > Struck by trains 1999 530
> > CO Poisoning 594
> > General Aviation 600
> > Recreational Boating 1996 714
> > Bicycle 1995 800
> > Water borne disease 1,200
> > CO Poisoning 1,500
> > Rec Boating 1973 1,754
> > Motorcycle 2,500
> > Car Phone 2002 Harvard 2,500
> > Subcompact cars NHTSA 2-3,000
> > EPA Second Hand Smoke 3,000
> > Fire 4,500
> > Drowning 4,621
> > Teen car accidents 5,500
> > Pedestrian accidents 6,000
> > Occupational Injuries 6,200
> > Adverse Drug Reactions 7,000
> > Food Illness 9,000
> > Skin Cancers 9,733
> > Bladder Cancer 11,700
> > Falls 12,662
> > Shooting Murder 15,456
> > Diet related Cancer 16,000
> > Alcohol Driving 17,126
> > Influenza 20,000
> > AIDS 20,000
> > Radon (EPA high) 20,000
> > Leukemia 21,000
> > Suicide 1994 31,142
> > Prostate Cancer 40,000
> > Breast Cancer 44,560
> > Motor Vehicle 50,000
> > Leukemia & Related 56,000
> > Colon Cancer 60,000
> > Medical Mistakes 98,000
> > Alcohol Related 100,000
> > Adverse Drug Reactions 106,000 JAMA '98
> > Trauma 125,000
> > Medical Negligence est 150,000
> > Lung Cancer 158,700
> > Diabetes related 169,000
> > Influenza/pneumonia 200,000
> > Obesity 300,000
> > Tobacco related 500,000
> > Cancer 500,000
> > Diseases of heart 733,834
> > ______________________________________________
> > Meteorite-list mailing list
> > Meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com
> > http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
> >
Received on Sat 03 Sep 2005 11:14:05 PM PDT


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