[meteorite-list] Preliminary MOSS meteorite classification

From: MexicoDoug <MexicoDoug_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Aug 31 05:26:03 2006
Message-ID: <007101c6ccdf$6f6e22e0$36ce5ec8_at_0019110394>

Dr. Grossman wrote:

>The odds may not be as astronomical as you
>think. I estimate that the probability that 3
>out of 6 random people were born in the same month is just over 10%.

jeff

Jeff, That's uncommonly good intuition. Reminds me of this discussion:

http://www.mail-archive.com/meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com/msg37371.htm
l

ODDS of exactly three of six being in one month, and the other 3 in two or
more other months not July:
=12*COMBIN(6,3)*PERMUT(11,3)/12^6
= 7.96% (with 90% confidence for me that it's right...)

But if we look at two weeks' interval where the falls fit (12 or 13 days
actually), instead of one month, it becomes,
= 2.32%, though that's not entirely fair because we are manipulating the
beginning and ending date a little to suit us so it has higher likelihood of
spanning two intervals than picking the month.
So I think the practical answer can be argued somewhere in between the two.
Then again maybe not. These number pairings and triplettings are headaches.
So mathematical scribblings are not warranted :-)

5% may be low probability, but, even Eva Longoria has to have a boyfriend.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Parker
Best wishes, Doug

P.D. I used to think my birthday was more special because more Full Moons
occurred on it than any other day of the year. Unfortunately for me, it was
because I started measuring from my date of birth, a full Moon, and extended
it to the present. So once I went a Full Moon earlier and redid the
calculation. And no longer was my birthday #1...So much for picking
intervals of convenience...
P.D.D. I used to believe in doing statistics on fall dates (bugging Marco,
etc.) until I realized - if there is no meteor shower accompanying the falls
... why on Earth would only big rocks be there and falling. Any collision
is bound to make may many more particles of sand, especially for such a
friable meteorite that has been described - and as Mike's narrative and
photo illustrate the pulverization just where it smashed against a little
cement at a snail's pace. 80 grams of powder makes many, many, little
meteors. So until we have the July 12 radiant...I'm personally not a
believer. (Is 5 km/sec [=11,200 mph] the average assumed collision speed in
space)

Alpha Cygnids Jul11-Jul30 peak=Jul 18 ZHR=2
South Delta Aquarids Jul12-Aug19 peak=Jul 28 ZHR=20


At 02:41 PM 8/30/2006, Michael Farmer wrote:
>That is amazing though, how with only 6 witnessed falls in the last 200
>years of CO3 meteorites, 50% of them are in July! Those are some
>astronomical odds!
>Mike Farmer
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: meteorite-list-bounces_at_meteoritecentral.com
>[mailto:meteorite-list-bounces_at_meteoritecentral.com] On Behalf Of Jeff
>Grossman
>Sent: Wednesday, August 30, 2006 11:35 AM
>To: meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com
>Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Preliminary MOSS meteorite classification
>
>Yes, I noticed that too. Could just be a
>coincidence, however. The dates are almost 2 weeks apart.
>
>jeff
>At 02:21 PM 8/30/2006, Bjorn Sorheim wrote:
>
>
> >Michael Farmer wrote:
> > >Hello everyone, well here is the preliminary
> > >classification data on the MOSS Norway meteorite fall.
> > >Dr Jeff Grossman is doing the classification and he
> > >sent me the following information a little while ago.
> >.....
> >
> > >Avg Fa PMD
> > >Kainsaz (CO3.2) 11.8 70
> > >Felix (CO3.3) 18.4 70
> > >Ornans (CO3.4) 19.0 68
> > >Lance (CO3.5) 21.2 63
> > >Warrenton (CO3.7) 33.9 21
> >
> > >Moss 19.9 65
> >
> > >This puts Moss between Ornans and Lance,
> >
> >Yes, you are so right Dr Grossman! Just look here:
> >
> >Ornans , Fall 11th July, 19:15h 1868
> >Moss, Fall 14th July, 10:15h 2006
> >Lance, Fall 23rd July, 17:20h 1872
> >
> > From The Catalogue (2000).
> >
> >Makes you think, don't it! Seems to be a connection here.
> >Any info on the trajectory at those falls?
> >
> > >although I
> > >don't think that
> > >difference is significant.
> >
> >Regards,
> >Bj?rn S?rheim
> >http://home.online.no/~bsoerhei/astro/meteor/060714/moss.html<Fresh
> >'Moss'...
> >
> >______________________________________________
> >Meteorite-list mailing list
> >Meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com
> >http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
>
>Dr. Jeffrey N. Grossman phone: (703) 648-6184
>US Geological Survey fax: (703) 648-6383
>954 National Center
>Reston, VA 20192, USA
>
>
>______________________________________________
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Dr. Jeffrey N. Grossman phone: (703) 648-6184
US Geological Survey fax: (703) 648-6383
954 National Center
Reston, VA 20192, USA


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Received on Thu 31 Aug 2006 05:25:37 AM PDT